Africa must accelerate regional integration, diversify its export markets and strengthen domestic production to withstand growing disruption in global trade.
A new, Global Trade Shifts and Policy Considerations in Africa 2026 by TradeMark Africa, warns that rising protectionism, particularly tariff tensions involving the US and China, exposes the continent’s dependence on external markets and raw commodity exports.
Africa accounts for only 3% of global trade. In 2023, the continent exported goods worth $615 billion and imported $699 billion, recording a trade deficit of $85 billion. Intra-African trade stood at $193 billion, equivalent to just 15-17% of the continent’s total trade.
The report says new tariffs could weaken the competitiveness of African exports, disrupt supply chains and reduce demand for products including apparel, agricultural goods, automobiles and minerals. Smaller economies that depend heavily on access to the US market could face job losses and declining export earnings.
Trade tensions experienced in recent years could also redirect low-priced goods from heavily tariffed markets into Africa, placing local manufacturers under greater pressure. At the same time, slower growth among major trading partners could reduce demand for African commodities and discourage investment.
Yet the changing global trade environment also presents opportunities. Africa’s critical minerals, competitive workforce and expanding consumer market could attract companies seeking to diversify production away from established Asian supply chains. Growing demand for services, digital trade and processed goods offers further room for diversification.
The report calls on African countries to negotiate collectively, domesticate African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) protocols and remove persistent non-tariff barriers. It also recommends greater investment in regional value chains covering agro-processing, fisheries, pharmaceuticals and automotive manufacturing.
Digital customs systems, regional transit guarantees and improved road, rail and port infrastructure would help reduce trading costs and delays. Stronger safeguards against dumping would provide additional protection for emerging industries.
The central message is blunt. Africa cannot control global tariff disputes, but it can reduce their impact by trading more with itself, processing more of its resources locally and approaching global negotiations as a unified bloc.