A new study, developed with TradeMark Africa support, has laid bare the true cost of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) in East Africa, revealing how seemingly routine checks, bans and administrative hurdles quietly drain billions from regional trade each year. The report, Developing Models for Estimating the Impacts of NTBs in the EAC Region, introduces the first set of evidence-based models capable of quantifying how these barriers dampen exports, inflate transport costs and slow the movement of goods across the Northern and Central Corridors. 

The analysis draws on data from the Northern and Central Corridors and the EAC Time-Bound NTB Elimination Programme, to quantify how factors such as weighbridge compliance, transit time, exchange rates and specific NTBs influence bilateral trade flows. Stricter weighbridge compliance along the Central Corridor, for example, was found to reduce trade flows, while administrative restrictions, such as sudden product bans, discriminatory taxes or excessive charges, continue to distort market access across the EAC. 

The study also confirms that even as partner states resolve the vast majority of reported NTBs, new ones keep emerging, often in more complex forms. The economic consequences are clear: distance still drags down exports; price and inflation shocks in exporting countries raise trade costs; and unresolved NTBs add layers of friction that undercut the gains of regional integration. 

The report proposes a pathway out of this cycle. It recommends integrating the new models into the monitoring systems of the Northern and Central Corridor authorities and expanding data collection to all EAC states, providing policymakers with a real-time, evidence-based tool for targeting and removing the most damaging barriers. As the region pushes towards deeper integration and the promise of the AfCFTA, the study offers an urgent reminder that East Africa cannot unlock its full trade potential without confronting the silent barriers hidden between its borders—now, with the numbers to prove it.

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