After 30 days of demonstrations and police confrontations following Burundi President Pierre Nkurunziza’s gamble for a third presidential term, 25 people are reported to have been killed. The wounded are reportedly standing at 450.

Concerns are mounting in Burundi and around the world about the risks of the conflagration in the country and the Great Lakes region.

The East African Community (EAC), of which Burundi is one of five members, comes under increasing pressure from the African Union, the United Nations and Burundi bilateral partners, to take action.

In fact, the Burundi crisis puts EAC members in a quandary. They could push Nkurunziza out or let him proceed to elections.

Whichever option they take, they know that it will be precedent setting in the broader region.

An EAC summit on Burundi is scheduled for Sunday in Dar es Salaam, 18 days after the first was called off amidst an attempted military coup in Bujumbura.

The request by protesters that Nkurunziza withdraws from the presidential race is based on the Accord for Peace and Reconciliation in Burundi signed in Arusha, Tanzania (the Arusha Accord), in August 2000. It clearly states: “No one may serve more than two presidential terms.”

A six-hour drive from Bujumbura, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, reflects the dilemma facing the region.

An Africanness champion, Museveni chaired and led the “Regional Initiative for Burundi” which for eight years, managed to broker the difficult Arusha Peace Accord. For the Ugandan leader and for Africa, giving in to Nkurunziza’s third term ambition would be rather compromising.

The Burundi President is overwhelmingly accused of blatantly violating the Arusha Accord in one of its most pivotal provisions. To Nkurunziza’s misfortune, the latter is widely regarded as a showcase of the AU and African regional bodies’ capacity to settle peace on the continent without extra-African intervention.

Civil war

Indeed, it took 24 heads of state summits and as many official regional consultations within East Africa to settle Burundian parties on the Accord and its implementing agreements.

These instruments brought a 14-year civil war to an end and allowed Burundians to enjoy seven consecutive years of peace. In many ways, the Burundi peace process was one of the greatest Africa-labelled joint efforts and successes to end a conflict.

Giving the green light to Nkurunziza would bring into serious disrepute the “by Africa for Africa” discourse of Museveni and many other African leaders. Nor should they forget that Nelson Mandela, a world icon of peace and reconciliation, was the last mediator to facilitate the Arusha Accord negotiations and he presided over the signing ceremony.

His dedication and legacy to South Africa put aside, Mandela’s memory is also alive through the Arusha Peace Accord in Burundi and the personal credit he had taken for it. In that regard and for Africa memory keepers, violating the Arusha Accord is akin to desecrating Mandela’s grave.

Somehow, taking sides against the protesters’ cause could also be regarded as disinheriting Mandela’s young heirs in Bujumbura who take to the streets and die every day to prolong Madiba’s legacy and save the Arusha Accord, which they claim is their only safe conduct to a peaceful future.

Yet, finding grounds in a consistent manner to bar Nkurunziza from seeking a third term is another tricky issue for EAC.

On term limitations and respect for Constitutions, Nkurunziza is understandably not ready to take lectures from Museveni, a 29-year serving president.

In neighbouring Rwanda, President Paul Kagame’s supporters are petitioning him to stay on after his second term ends in 2017. A legal approach to the Burundi crisis is unlikely to be EAC preferred tactic. Thus, President Nkurunziza feels at ease.

Playing soccer

While awaiting elections, he fancies playing soccer in the late afternoon. Day after day, he assigns his police to shoot live bullets and kill protesters in the streets. To close the loop, he conveys his condolences to the victims.

In fact, although the legal aspect should not be questioned, the matter goes beyond it. After nearly 10 years of Nkurunziza’s rule, Burundi’s economy lags far behind the other four EAC member states.

Burundi is a landlocked country, heavily dependent on subsistence agriculture and donor aid.

A World Bank report noted that the country’s average income per capita was of $280 in 2013, one of the lowest in the world. In the same year, the average income per capita in Rwanda stood at $630, a figure which is double the income per capita that is forecast for Burundi … in 2025, should reforms in the country keep their current pace.

In 2014, the Human Development Index and its Components ranked Burundi in the 180th place out of 187. About 66.9 per cent of Burundi population are reportedly living below the poverty line (UNDP, Human Development Report, 2014).

One evening last week, a grenade attack near the central market of Bujumbura killed six people, mostly female early-rising fruit sellers who barely make $3 from their 13 hour-long days..

The “zero tolerance of corruption” policy that was loudly trumpeted from the outset of Nkurunziza’s first term (2005-2010) never started.

Burundi is ranked in the 159th place out of 175 and scores 20/100 in the Transparency International corruption index, hitting rock bottom inside EAC. Corruption is becoming more and more entrenched.

Above all, many question Nkurunziza’s personal capacity to envision change and lead progress for Burundi. His unchanging attitude in the face of mounting social and economic problems tends to dash Burundians’ hopes for future change when it is most needed.

Throughout his 10-year tenure, he and his government were frequently brought to account by the local media and civil society groups for dozens of embezzlement and corruption cases, extrajudicial killings, interference in judicial affairs, brutal conduct by his party’s youth wing toward opposition members and so forth.

Invariably, his answer was to either deny or to set up ad hoc commission that never delivered. As a result, problems piled up over years.

Wealthy and corrupt

Most worryingly, as impunity spreads all over and as blind obedience emerges as the rule for promotion, corrupt and underperforming officials are more and more numerous.

A very narrow circle of wealthy and corrupt henchmen around President Nkurunziza, often named in international human rights reports (UN, Human Rights Watch), have gained in strength year after year, imposing their laws, setting negative precedents, spreading negative models.

As the primary community of states that Burundi belongs to, the EAC is at the forefront of the world response to the unrest in Burundi. At this juncture, the conflicting parties in Burundi will leave EAC little room for manoeuvre as they cling adamantly to their respective positions.

As one-sided as it may look, pressure on Nkurunziza to renounce his candidacy appears as the only defensible option, from both a moral point of view and a practical perspective. Whether one considers the legal aspect or his achievements, Nkurunziza and his supporters have literally nothing to substantiate the claim for a third term.

The decision in his favour issued by the constitutional court does not cut it and Nkurunziza has only himself to blame for this. Several times, he toyed and damaged the court reputation, by dint of self-serving rulings to help him out of his own party infighting or his fights with local media, human rights groups and opposition parties.

By contrast, Burundian protesters’ determination is building and solidifying every day in the belief that if they end up winning respect for their sacred democratic principles, then their country will rise stronger than ever. For decades to come, other Nkurunzizas will be deterred from repeating his rash gambles.

For generations to come, true democratic principles shall live and preserve Burundi and its youth from further violence. On the other side, the upcoming EAC Head of States summit should be aware that if they give in to Nkurunziza, then the Arusha Peace Accord might be broken for good.

Tomorrow, others will violate it, bringing EAC Heads of State back, again and again and for years to come, to Burundi’s sickbed. The EAC needs Burundi to be an asset to it, not a burden.

Nkurunziza did not do much to put Burundi on the EAC map, let alone the world. Thus, he has little to rely on and does not have many allies to count on, should he defiantly push forward his third term agenda, come hell or high water.

Country’s revenue

June is the time of the year when the government usually cuts public expenditures forecast by up to 30 per cent, owing to proportionate lower-than-expected revenues. This time around, the government is faced with heavy election costs for which it recently lost the support of key donors.

The government is dipping into social and development programme resources to close the $9m gap and fund the elections, as evidenced by a presidential decree signed on May 21. This happens amidst bilateral partner threats to reconsider their support to Burundi development programmes and finances.

It is also occurring after a month of protests which have slowed down the country’s revenue, negatively impacting the ailing economy. Nkurunziza knows that the country’s economic situation is such that he would be on the back foot quite rapidly, should he face sanctions.

However, international, regional, bilateral and multilateral partners to Burundi should be cautious about sanctions, if considered, given the few scruples of Nkurunziza in resorting to whatever it takes to fulfil his ambitions.

Recently, he showed little reluctance to play the ethnic card to rally support. Depending on what they are and when they are enforced, sanctions may prove to be a nuclear button in this volatile country and region.

So far, Nkurunziza’s attempts to divide along the ethnic lines fell short of domestic clients. However, time and provocations could erode the cohesion of protestors and turn them against each other.

The sooner coercive measures are taken, the less risk will be incurred.

Source: Africa Review

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TradeMark Africa.