Five years ago, Africa made history.
When the African Continental Free Trade Area was launched, it carried the hopes of 1.2 billion people coming together as one market, harnessing a $3 trillion economy, and a vision of an Africa trading with itself, on its own terms. Five years later, while celebrating the successes of the AfCFTA, we can also ask ourselves where we need to go now in a fast-changing world.

The past five years have seen a COVID-19 pandemic which hugely disrupted global supply chains, leading to a contraction in global trade in 2020 of over 5%. While trade rebounded, geopolitical tensions combined with a retreat from free trade have loomed large, with global trade now undergoing the slowest growth in five decades outside global recessions. As these uncertainties unfold, they create a complex new landscape that Africa must carefully navigate to advance its economic interests.

This lecture will examine: the achievements or AfCFTA score card; the financial and internal structural issues that are hindering Africa’s accession to the centre of global trade; and what the future may hold.

The Good: AfCFTA Scorecard
Firstly, the good. When the AfCFTA was launched in 2020, it promised to break down borders, boost African trade, and unlock economic growth across the continent. And the AfCFTA is Africa’s most successful Agenda 2063 flagship project. Of all the major initiatives under Agenda 2063, it stands out as the most advanced in implementation according to the African Union Commission and AUDA-NEPAD’s 2022 biennial report​.

The political commitment to the AfCFTA, and to market integration, is strong​. 48 ratifications are no small feat, and tell us that Africa believes in this vision. Trade under AfCFTA has begun, and businesses across the continent are starting to explore new opportunities.

And the early signs of trade growth are encouraging. Between 2017 and 2023, intra-African trade grew by 27%, from $140 billion to $190 billion. It is now likely to pass the $200 billion mark for the first time ever. This growth matters. It means more African goods are being exchanged within the continent, more local businesses are benefitting, and trade integration is taking shape. Even on a global scale, the WTO projects that Africa’s exports will grow faster than any other region—5.3% in 2024, up from 3.1% in 2023. Imports are also expected to increase by over 4%, a sign of positive economic activity on the continent.

And the work of so many people here has underpinned that. I note the publishing of the e-tariff book, which makes access to tariffs and rules of origin more accessible through digitalisation. On trade in goods, Member States have made commitments to eliminate tariffs on 97% of tariff lines over a specified period. So far 43 countries, representing 78% of the AU’s membership, have submitted their tariff offers, and 92% of the tariff lines rules of origin have been agreed upon. An online NTB elimination mechanism, a Pan-African Payment and Settlement System and a trade observatory have been established. And the Protocol on Women and Youth in Trade was adopted in 2024 as a legally binding instrument of AfCFTA: a powerful statement of African commitment to inclusive trade.

These are concrete and significant gains. And I congratulate you for your part in them.

What is Africa’s Problem? The context of Africa’s trade
And yet, intra-African trade still stands at just 15% of total African trade. Compare that to 50% in Asia. And from 2017 to 2023, Africa’s total merchandise exports surged by 200%, while intra-African trade increased by 27%. I want you think about this. While intra-African trade is improving, the growth in trade is still far more a question of external markets than between our countries. While there is nothing wrong with taking the opportunities where they come, this shows that something is hindering opportunities on the continent.

For decades, Africa has supplied the world with gold, oil, coffee, cocoa, and a host of other raw materials, some of which it then reimports back as finished products, at a much higher price. This is a structural trap, keeping us at the lower end of global value chains. Yet, our own consumption trends should serve as a wake-up call that trade agreements alone are not enough. We drink imported processed coffee. We wear imported jewellery. If we are buying these products anyway, why are we not adding the value ourselves?

According to a recent International Trade Centre report, the biggest opportunity for intra-African trade expansion lies in industrial products—fertilisers, minerals, beauty products, chemicals, and other manufactured goods. This should be our starting point.

Let us be clear. We are not short of ambition. Our leaders, businesses, and people want to trade. The energy is there. The ideas are there. The opportunity is immense. But across our continent, businesses still face complex regulations, logistical hurdles, poor infrastructure, and overlapping trade blocs, each with their own interests and rules. And so, instead of one big market, we have fragmented pieces, which are not linked to each other.

Three Key Challenges

1. Infrastructure
2. Trade Regulations
3. Finance

The future – Agenda 2063 – Africa must lead its own transformation.
So where do we go from here?

I remember clearly when we stood in Ethiopia ten years ago and launched Agenda 2063. It was a bold declaration and a vision of an integrated, self-sufficient Africa, trading with itself, producing for itself, and shaping its own economic future. At the time, many doubted us. They said our ambitions were too big, that the barriers were too many. And yet, just a few years later, we signed the AfCFTA, a commitment to something greater than national economies. It was Africa showing confidence in its young population, vast agricultural opportunity, and untapped mineral resources across the continent. That confidence is not misplaced.

Agenda 2063 lays out Africa’s vision for economic transformation. AfCFTA is a major pillar in making this vision a reality. We have seen the commitment of our leaders, as they have signed the agreements, meaning political will is strong. Now, the real work begins.

I am certain everyone here will agree with me that trade agreements alone will not create jobs or build industries. That, as I have set out above, also requires the roads, ports, and financial systems that connect businesses and people. Without these, progress will be uneven, and implementation slow.

We must also believe and champion a pan-African vision because sometimes, we know national interests still override continental priorities. That means, we who have the responsibility of implementing AfCFTA together with governments, businesses, and other institutions, must stop talking and start building.

So, to create lift-off for intra-African trade, we must:

• Invest in transport corridors like LAPSSET in East Africa, Abidjan-Lagos in West Africa, and the North-South Corridor in southern Africa.
• Leverage public-private partnerships to finance infrastructure, modernise customs, and streamline trade facilitation.
• Double down on digitalising trade processes to cut delays and inefficiencies at borders.

A globally competitive Africa will come from what we produce, what we buy, and where we invest. But when we talk of building and buying African, it is not about exhorting consumers to be patriotic; it is about implementing effective trade and industrial policies, so that we build the quality, productivity capacity and regional value chains that will give consumers a compelling reason to buy African products.

As we are coming to the end, let me acknowledge that the challenge ahead of us is tough and exciting. But I think we all agree that making the AfCFTA work is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape Africa’s future. Let us not waste it.

With those many remarks, happy fifth birthday AfCFTA.

– END LECTURE –

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TradeMark Africa.