Lower commodities prices have had some far-reaching effects on African economies. For exporters, weaker revenue has damped growth. Consider Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and biggest oil producer. The country’s gross domestic product contracted 2.1 percent in the second quarter, following a 0.4 percent slump in the first. Adjusting to this new reality will take time for energy exporters. Most African economies, though, aren’t in the oil business. For them, lower fuel costs support growth and living standards. So fortunes are set to diverge across the continent. In fact, the narrative could change from “Africa Rising” to “Africa Tilting” as commodity exporters in West, Central, and Southern Africa struggle to find new sources of growth, while East African economies develop and integrate into a more robust—and potentially huge—regional market. From 2010 to 2014, economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa averaged 5.2 percent. After oil prices plunged in 2014, growth slowed to 3.4 percent in 2015. It’s likely to be weaker still in 2016, but the decline in aggregate terms largely reflects slowdowns in Nigeria, fellow oil exporter Angola, and South Africa. The three countries accounted for about 60 percent of sub-Saharan GDP in 2015 but less than 30 percent of its population. For Bloomberg Intelligence analysis and data on Africa. Deeper integration, better-functioning markets, and improved infrastructure could all bear fruit as the continent pursues other sources of growth. East Africa is leading the way. The African Development Bank, in its inaugural Africa Regional Integration Index Report, rated the East African Community—Burundi,...
Africa Tilts as Winners Emerge From the Commodities Slump
Posted on: October 24, 2016
Posted on: October 24, 2016